Does the draw make a difference? Why we'll never know

The EBU's decision to allow SVT to decide the running order of the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest in Malmö has caused the shit to hit the fan and rain down over the Eurovision message boards in a fashion barely seen since the days of Marlain.

But is it going to be a game-killer for the contest? Does a song's starting position make a big difference for its chances? Maybe. In the past few weeks and months, fans have come up with plenty of theories to prove that the draw does make a difference, and that SVT are out to screw the chances of the songs they don't like.

I intend to show you that those theories are generally a whole load of hookum.

"But in 2009, 14 of the 20 qualifiers came from the second half of the semis."

Two points. Firstly, 14/20 is hardly an overwhelming correlation. Secondly, using statistics like that out of context ignores one of the greatest variables in the contest - the quality of the songs. One of the main reasons it's impossible to compare statistics like this on a year-by-year basis is that the songs and performances are, by their very nature, completely different each year.

Without even looking at what songs were drawn where in 2009, that argument contains obvious fallacies, as it assumes that all songs are born equal. They aren't, and by just looking at the bald statistics you're completely failing to take this into account.

Taking 2009 as an example, the first halves of those semis include 'Aven Romale', 'Copycat', 'La teva decisió (Get a Life)', 'Let' tmou' and 'Firefly', songs that most fans would agree never had any hope of qualifying. This just shows that judging the numbers and the statistics without taking into account the songs themselves is pretty much a futile exercise

"But Haba Haba is a great song, and was drawn second and failed to qualify."

Sure, you think it's a great song. Maybe everybody at your party loved it too. The problem is, of course, that there is no hard and fast way to judge a song's quality, and on the night, not enough people liked it and voted for it. And in music, unlike science, there is no right/wrong, no measure of good or bad.

We simply cannot argue that if a song had been drawn in another position, it would have got another result. Ultimately, we cannot know. Perhaps Haba Haba did only fail to qualify because it was drawn second. Or perhaps it did badly because most people didn't think it was very good or very well performed.

Ultimately, it's impossible to directly compare songs - all songs are different and we only ever see them in one starting position - it's not like we ever get the opportunity to place the same song in different positions with all the other influencing criteria intact, just to see what would happen. In summary, it's the songs themselves that are the biggest variable, and have the biggest influence over their own final result.

(Incidentally, as a side note: in researching this article and looking for an example for this section, it struck me just how many songs drawn second have actually qualified since 2008 - either six or seven out of ten, depending how you view Sweden 2008.)

"But we do see them in two different positions - in the semi and the final!"

This is a fair point, and there are examples of songs which qualify and then get a very different draw in the final, and get a very different result. Two examples would be Latvia in 2005, which scrapes through the semi then performs last in the final where it finishes 5th, and Finland in 2011, which qualifies comfortably, then has to go on first in the final where it bombs.

But are they a direct comparison? I would argue that the semi-final and the final are completely different beasts, with greatly differing audiences. Firstly and most obviously, since 2008 the final has all competing countries voting, while the semis only have a selected half. This will naturally affect voting patterns, especially if you got stuck with (or separated from) your neighbours in the semi-final.

The final itself also tends to have vastly higher viewing figures than the two semis. We therefore have a different demographic voting in the final - the semi viewers are perhaps more dedicated fans of the contest or members of a diaspora, whereas the Saturday night show attracts a wider range of people. And on a Saturday, viewers are perhaps looking for something different. The whole family may be watching together, while others may be at a party with significant amounts of alcohol consumed. All of this leads to different voting patterns in the final than in the semi.

And aside from the voting patterns of people watching at home, the final itself is a totally different contest to the semis. The hopeless songs that made you look competent are gone, and perhaps have been replaced by two acts from the other semi-final, doing the same thing you're doing, only better. With completely different competition, and different people voting, the results between a semi and a final are always likely to vary.

All in all, we can never prove that the draw is the decisive factor in a song's result. There is evidence that points that way, and indeed the Latvia and Finland examples mentioned above present a pretty strong argument, but ultimately, with the strongest variable being the song, and a lack of any opportunity to do any kind of representative testing, we can never prove anything for sure.

So, in summary, most fans making up theories and 'proofs' on the internet are talking complete rubbish.

Why I feel sorry for Valentina Monetta

You know, there's a lot of reasons to feel bad for this perky 37-year-old (I know!) from San Marino. First and foremost, she has to stand and sing 'Facebook The Social Network Song (Uh Oh Uh Oh Oh)' on a stage in front of millions of people. The poor girl also has to spend a lot of time with Ralph Siegel. It doesn't seem like a fun experience for anyone.


It's bad enough that a talented jazz singer has been shoe-horned into a song completely unsuitabed to her. It's a song for a 17-year old girl, though Monetta pulls off a pretty convincing impression of one in the video and in her performance. But it's the way that the campaign has seemingly overtaken her entire existence that makes me feel sorry for her.

Of course, all promotional campaigns involve creating an image for an artist, dictating where they go and who they talk to. But Monetta's has been taken to the next level. Even before the song was unveiled, a personal Facebook account had been set up in her name and started friending Eurovision fans and over the past few months has posted as if it were Valentina herself behind it. And throughout her promotional campaign, she's worn variations on the same clothes (always white and light blue, to reflect her country's flag) and always has to be pictured at a moment's notice on flights and in foreign cities allegedly 'on Facebook' or making friends.

We know nothing about her personally outside of 'The Social Network Song'. All of her interviews are about how much she loves to use Facebook and how cool social networking and the internet are, and nothing about her as a person (oh, except she loves kitesurfing, of all things!). Valentina Monetta just does not seem to exist outside of this song.

It's almost like this Valentina Monetta who we've got to know over the last few months and been friended by on Facebook is nothing but a character created by Siegel and the Sammarinese delegation to sell this song. It's as if 'Valentina Monetta' is just a creation in the way that Silvia Night was just a creation. But in this case, while she's just playing a role, there is a real person with a real career behind it, who is going to lose out.

But the reason I feel most sorry for her is that all of this effort is likely to be for about 8 points next Tuesday, and an early flight back to San Marino, and back down to earth to a bump, with nothing to show for it except for lots of blue clothes and a Facebook profile full of friends she doesn't even like.

She's Lolly for the 21st century.

Eurovision 2012 interviews

Almost two weeks ago now, I visited the London Eurovision Party as accredited press and took the opportunity to interview several of this year's performers.

As press, you always want to keep your cool and appear professional, but the one artist I was absolutely desperate to meet was Kaliopi from Macedonia. I'm a big fan of hers and have been for many years. After hanging around while she was in massive demand early in the day, I eventually managed to grab her right after her soundcheck. It's always a concern when you meet your idols, in case they don't live up to your impression of them, but I had nothing to worry about. Kaliopi was absolutely lovely and hugged and kissed me after the interview when I confessed what a big fan I am.

And she was a delight to interview too, and was shocked at how knowledgeable I was about her career (as well as a little humourously put out that I reminded her how old she was!). It was such a pleasure to meet her, and you can read my interview with her for ESC Nation here.

After having achieved my main goal for the day, I set about grabbing as many more interviews as I could. I'd made contact with Andrej Hofer, the Slovenian press representative, earlier, and he'd promised me an interview with Eva Boto, but she'd been snapped up by Channel 4 and the BBC. He came to find me immediately after my hugs and kisses from Kaliopi, and hustled me into the toilets where I finally got my interview with Eva. You can read that, as well as my chat with 2005 representative Omar Naber, here.

Filipa Sousa from Portugal wasn't very in demand compared to many other performers, as spent much of the afternoon sitting chatting to her parents, who'd she'd flown across to have a brief holiday with in London. I perched on a couch next to them, and her interview is here.

Finally, I ventured into the press scrum upstairs, where at least four acts were sitting with fan and professional journalists queueing up and trying to hold their ground to get their five minutes in. Compact Disco from Hungary headed off very suddenly, but I did manage to sidle my way on to Anggun's table, and did a very quick interview with her too, which you can read here.

The final performer who was hanging around was Sabina Babayeva, who was very sought after by the TV stations present, and I was warned that they were eager for a story on Azerbaijan's human rights record. With a large crowd waiting to get to talk to her, and finding myself at the back of the queue, I bade a hasty retreat. I wasn't able to stay for the party in the evening, where all the acts sang their songs and other hits, before fans and performers danced the night away to Eurovision music until the early hours.

Eurovision 2012 - a draw analysis

It's been a week, which is plenty of time for the draw for the 2011 Eurovision Song Contest to sink in a little, so here's my take on what those random little balls have done to the chances of some of our favourite songs.

Semi 1

Semi 1 starts with, who else, Montenegro! A song like this was always going to struggle to qualify, and I think going first more or less wipes out any chances it may have had. It'll certainly be an entertaining start for the viewers! Iceland and Greece follow, two strong songs which should have decent chances of making the final from any starting position.

I personally feel that Latvia and Albania were always facing an uphill battle to qualify. Latvia risks coming across amateur and silly, if they aren't very careful with it, and Albania is probably just too weird for mainstream ears. In this draw, they're going to struggle. Romania probably isn't the kind of song that's really affected by the draw, but it certainly benefits coming after Albania - two songs could barely be more different!

Romania is followed by Switzerland, which I've automatically assumed is pretty doomed, especially in the first half of the draw. Following Switzerland we have Belgium and Finland. As good a draw as either were going to get really, once we knew they were in the first half, though both could have seriously benefited by getting to be the 'sensible', competent pop song in position 17 after a lot of silly stuff.

The song that effectively gets that opportunity is Denmark, performing after San Marino and Cyprus, one of which is almost certainly going to be ridiculous and hopeless, with the other definitely having the potential to be (I'll let you decide which is which!), as well as Israel's quirkiness. Either way, Denmark, which was already sailing through to the final, really does benefit from this draw.

Denmark is further helped by preceding the Russian Grannies too. Late on in the semi is a decent enough draw for them, but, in contrast, it doesn't work for Hungary. Initially I thought they'd got a great draw, but listening through in order, it really doesn't work coming after Denmark and Russia. Which means that Austria following Hungary comes in like a breath of fresh air; its qualification chances went right up for me after this.

Moldova is Moldova, and has a pretty decent draw, performing close to the end. And the semi concludes with Jedward. Watching these through in order, 'Waterline' came across as very ragged and a little bit hopeless coming on last, but we know how well Ireland polished up 'Lipstick' last year, and Jedward of course have form qualifying from the final starting position. They're almost certainly through.

Semi 2

The second semi-final this year is dominated by the ex-Yugoslav countries, so let's take a look at their draws first. Serbia opens the show, and, while it's probably not the best position for this atmospheric, quiet number with a long introduction (especially if the Azeris choose something along the same lines for the opening act), Željko is obviously qualifying. Less clear is Kaliopi singing for Macedonia in the unfavoured second position. I think these two songs would both benefit from performing the other way around. Slovenia and Croatia have been drawn together in the middle of the running order, probably not a great draw for either, and their chances will wholly depend on their performances. If one of Nina and Eva commands the stage and kills it, then the other is probably screwed. And Bosnia takes position 17. As the last ballad, it surely has strong chances of making the final.

Other fan-favourites in this semi-final include Joan Franka, performing third for the Netherlands, and Tooji taking 16th position for Norway. It's probably the worst draw that Joan could have got - I feel that her song would have benefited the most by coming across as a refreshing break from silly, amateur pop, and while Serbia and Macedonia won't be everyone's cup of tea, there's no arguing about whether they'll be performed professionally. Tooji, in contrast, needed a late draw, and he got it.

Others benefiting from the draw include Estonia, who get to perform their ballad after the potential madness of Georgia and Turkey, and also favourites Sweden, who get to follow two ballads. The draw isn't particularly kind for many of the first half - Malta, Belarus and Portugal all probably had slim chances of qualifying anyway, and would have benefited from being in the second half, and Bulgaria risks coming across as a less-good version of Ukraine, which it follows. Ukraine, with its storming performance, is probably pretty safe anywhere, and couldn't have picked a better song to perform after than Portugal.

Which leaves Slovakia, which I generally think is pretty chanceless wherever it performs, and Lithuania. The Lithuanians selected to go last, clearly believing it to be the best position to perform from, and they may well be right, with only one non-qualification from the last spot in the semi since 2008. But still, I do think there's a risk performing last, and that's that you take the chance of coming across as a silly interval act, or just simply not good enough. Both of those things arguably happened to the Netherlands in 2009, and they were effectively left with just one point, from Denmark (plus 10 from the barmy Albanian jury). If you're on last, you have to give people at least some reason to watch, and to vote, otherwise everyone's off to the loo before the reprise. Needless to say, I'm not sure Lithuania made the best decision here.

Final

Moving on to the final, which is much harder to say anything concrete about, since, as much as a late draw can be important for an act, perhaps more crucial is the combination of songs surrounding them.

Either way, performing first probably isn't great for the UK. It didn't work for 'Da Da Dam', another ballad, in 2011, which lost a bunch of its votes from the semi by the time the final voting came around, and if the Azeris put 'Running Scared' in the opening act, it'll be a downbeat first fifteen minutes to the show. Whichever of the semi-final qualifiers gets drawn as the first uptempo of the night should be hoping to do pretty well come the scoreboard.

Later on we have France and Italy drawn together again (at 9 and 10), though this time I don't think the draw hurts France as much as it did last year, with both clearly going for rather different audiences. 13th before the break is probably decent for Azerbaijan, and Spain and Germany will both be pleased to be on towards the end of the show. Their chances, though, will greatly depend on what gets drawn around them.

So, there you have it! Do you agree, or do you have another opinion on this draw? Comment below and share your thoughts!

This blog also appeared in a slightly modified version at ESC Nation.

Melodifestivalen 2012 - My Top 32

1. På väg - Abalone Dots
A beautiful country ballad with tight harmonies, this was always going to be my favourite. And it even has a really well-executed key change too!

2. Why am I crying - Molly Sandén
Big emotional break-up ballad, with lovely thoughtful lyrics - just my thing!

3. The Girl - Charlotte Perrelli
See, I do like schlager sometimes!

4. Amazing - Danny Saucedo
I wasn't particularly expecting to like this, but I really do! I find it really uplifting and positive to listen to.

5. Euphoria - Loreen
Not as dark as 'My Heart Is Refusing Me', and therefore not as interesting, but a goodie nonetheless.

6. Soldiers - Ulrik Munther

7. I mina drömmar - Maria BenHajji

8. Sanningen - Carolina Wallin Pérez

9. Why start a fire? - Lisa Miskovsky

10. Förlåt mig - Mattias Andréasson

11. The boy can dance - Afro-dite

12. Det går för långsamt - Mimi Oh

13. Jag reser mig igen - Thorsten Flinck & Revolutionsorkestern

14. Mirakel - Björn Ranelid feat Sara Li

15. Baby Doll - Top Cats

16. I din himmel - Sonja Aldén

17. Kyss mig - Axel Algmark

18. Goosebumps - Hanna Lindblad

19. Just a little bit - Love Generation

20. Aldrig Aldrig - Andreas Lundstedt

21. Sean den förste banan - Sean Banan

22. Shout it out - David Lindgren

23. Stormande hav - Timoteij

24. Youngblood - Youngblood

25. Salt and pepper - Marie Serneholt

26. Ge aldrig upp - Thomas di Leva

27. Lovelight - Andreas Johnson

28. Mystery - Dead by April

29. Land of Broken dreams - Dynazty

30. Don't let me down - Christer & Lotta
Well, you did let me down. I was hoping that this might be a charming little old-people number, along the lines of 'C'est la vie' from 2004. It's not, it's just horrible.

31. Allting blir bra igen - OPA!
Pointless. Why bother, really. I'm all for diversity in Melodifestivalen, but not when it comes up with songs as poor as this.

32. I want to be Chris Isaak (This is just the beginning) - The Moniker
HAAAA-HAAAA!

And to get the taste of The Moniker out of my mouth, here's my favourite, 'På väg' by Abalone Dots.

Eurovision goes country

Those of you who know me will probably know that my two great musical passions are country music and the Eurovision Song Contest. Not two genres that naturally fit well together, I admit, but in this blog entry I'll take a look at nine of the songs that were entered for this year's contest (though didn't get there), which wouldn't necessarily sound out of place on US country radio.

Babel Fish – Depend On Me
Who'd sing it? Rascal Flatts

The first time I heard this song, I was immediately reminded of the group Rascal Flatts. The slightly straining falsetto in the chorus and the sentimental lyrics are very reminiscent of their work, and this song would fit right in on one of their recent albums. I'm not sure they've ever had a stage show that involved looking through the window of a cardboard house though.

Dalma – Song for Him
Who'd sing it? Gretchen Wilson

Dalma puts on the growls a little too much for them to sound authentic, but there's a decent country song at the heart of this – or possibly two or three different country songs. There's a bit of a kiss-off and there's a couple of broken hearts; I'm not so sure about the silliness at the end though – it works well enough as a song without having to be a pastiche.

Evija Sloka – Don't Stop the Dance
Who'd sing it? Pam Tillis

The lyrics are a little questionable, and the accent is all over the place, but there's no mistaking the country influences on this song that never really stood much chance of making it through a Latvian selection. Sloka lists Brad Paisley and Alan Jackson as her dream duet partners.

Hanne Sorvaag – You're Like A Melody
Who'd sing it? Jewel

In 2010, Eurovision fans were comparing Swedish singer Anna Bergendahl and her song 'This Is My Life' to Jewel's earlier work, but nowadays she'd be more likely to record songs like this Norwegian finalist. It's very much at the pop end of pop country, right where Jewel's recent albums have positioned her, and the feelgood similes hold together very well and would fit right in on contemporary country radio.

CH – Gid nif uf
Who'd sing it? Keith Urban (he basically already did!)

Other than being sung in Swiss German, this song sits right in the Keith Urban-school of country music, with pumping beats and a prominent electric guitar line, but it's grounded by the fiddle that runs right through the arrangement. The song's so committed to sounding like Keith Urban that it even steals the entire chorus melody of the Australian's 'I Told You So'.

Yohanna – Nótt
Who'd sing it? Carrie Underwood

It's not really country, but this track would fit right in on a Carrie Underwood album, particularly in its English version, with its considered lyrics and a silky melody that takes off into a crescendo for the last chorus.

Carmel Eckman - Nosa'at el ga'agu'ay
Who'd sing it? Sarah Jarosz

To be honest with you, Israel is more or less the last place where I'd expect to find a song like this. It's a gentle, acoustic ballad, with a lovely strummy guitar and a fiddle break in the middle. Unsurprisingly, it came almost last.

The Lucky Bullets – Fire Below
Who'd sing it? Justin Townes Earle

I was absolutely astounded when I first heard this in the Norwegian preselection, as it sounds so authentically rockabilly – not a hint of the slight 'foreignness' that often blights Eurovision songs that are trying to be very American. I was even more impressed when the Norwegians voted it into third place in the final, and I even got to cheer for it in person!

Pernilla Andersson – Desperados
Who'd sing it? Kathleen Edwards

Perhaps less country and more Americana than some of the songs on this list, 'Desperados' was one step away from making it into the Melodifestivalen final. The gentle chugging beat, the savoured chords and Andersson's velvety voice combine to make this my favourite song of the Eurovision season.

I'm sure many of you will disagree with the singers I've chosen to record these songs, so I invite you to post your suggestions below. And clearly, some of them would need quite a bit of changing and improvement before the singers mentioned would even consider going near them, and they might not take too kindly to being connected to them (sorry Pam Tillis!). But this is Eurovision, I have to take what I can get!

No Eurovision in the UK charts?

One measure of the success of Eurovision entries, and the contest as a whole, is how many entries end up in countries’ own official charts, tracking how many people actually bought the entries after the contest. Yesterday it was mentioned that several entries had already gone on to the iTunes charts of some countries, like Sweden and Ireland. I decided to have a look and see if any of Tuesday’s competitors had hit the UK iTunes chart.

The answer was, effectively, no. The only one that did was Iceland, right near the bottom. Wondering why, I went to the album page, and got my answer. About ten of the songs are listed as ‘album only’. This means that you cannot purchase them separately, you only get them when buying the whole album. The same is true on Amazon.

Unfortunately (though presumably by design), this affects several of the favourites, and some of those more likely to chart in the UK – Belgium, Germany, Sweden, Azerbaijan, even the UK. Some of these may well be available elsewhere on download sites, but some aren’t, and even if they are, people are unlikely to go delving further. This happened last year too, but with fewer of the favourites involved.

The entire point of digital music purchasing is that it allows consumers to cherry pick what they want to buy, and with ease. If it’s complicated, they just won’t bother. And people are unlikely to want to buy the whole album too. It’s really frustrating to see how Eurovision is, yet again, falling behind the trends of the modern world, and showing itself as a dinosaur, out of touch with modern music, in more ways than one.

I’m not holding my breath at all of there being several hits in the UK charts from this year’s contest. And that’s a shame, because it can happen, as seen by Rybak and Yohanna making it last year, and because entries charting can add a bit of credibility to a contest sometimes sorely lacking it. But if the organisers and the distributors cannot get simple things like this right, it’s not surprising.

Some thoughts on Melodifestivalen 2010

I’ve been thinking a lot about MF this year, more than other years, so I figured I may as well write those thoughts down in a blog. For those who don’t know, Melodifestivalen is the Swedish festival, held over a period of six weeks, which eventually selects their Eurovision representative.

There’ve been a couple of big changes this year. The first is a shift (probably conscious) away from the schlager entries to a greater variety of genres and styles, debatably more relevant to the general music scene. Whether the entries themselves are better or not is a matter of personal taste.

What has resulted is quite a variety of qualifiers to the final. Of the eight entries there already, only one could really be described as the kind of schlager that normally dominates this contest (Eric Saade's Manboy), with one other skirting the boundaries, being closer to the more old-fashioned dansband-schlager type of music (Timoteij's Kom), which would nevertheless be a different kind of winner for Sweden. The question is: does this mean more of a chance for Sweden to finally choose something different as its winner? Statistically, it does, but some have argued in previous years that if there were just one schlager to choose from, the voters that would normally be split between those entries will all gravitate towards one.

Then there is the change in the announcements of the qualifiers from the semi-finals. In a break from tradition, this year we know which of the two qualifiers won the first round of voting each time. Some might consider that the winner would definitely come from these four (which are Salem Al Fakir's Keep On Walking, Anna Bergendahl's This Is My Life and the aforementioned Kom and Manboy). Will fans of these songs realise they have a big chance of winning, and vote for them more vehemently? Or will they relax, feeling that they’re already popular and their vote isn’t needed? And will fans of the songs and artists who qualified in second place not bother voting, because they feel their favourite cannot win, or will they vote more, knowing their favourite is in greater need of their votes? It’s a difficult question to call, and it will be interesting to see if any conclusions can be drawn from the televoting results next Saturday.

The final change that’s been made is on the juries. Instead of eleven juries based in cities around Sweden, there will be just five of these, with the remaining six calling in their votes from around Europe. It’s hard to predict what difference this will make (if any), but it will be interesting to see if they differ from their Swedish counterparts – and especially the reaction if they happen to swing the result away from the Swedish choice!

It remains to be seen, then, whether these changes will result in Sweden choosing something different and fresh as its Melodifestivalen winner (and Eurovision entrant). One thing that is clear is that the contest definitely feels different this year, and is fresher and more varied. Personally I like this change (though not necessarily all of the songs), though I know many, suffering from schlager withdrawal, would disagree with this. My personal prediction is that Eric Saade will win the final, which would really disappoint me after all the potential of several of the other finalists (though the blow would be softened somewhat by the winnings from the bet I’ve put on him). Regardless, I’m really looking forward to the final!